The farce of Iranian elections
Prof. Eyal Zisser - Israel Hayom
Much ink has been spilled over Friday's elections for the 290 seats in Iran's Majlis (parliament), which oversees the activities of the president and the government, and for the 88-member Assembly of Experts, the body that will select the country's next leader.

The elections were apparently a celebration of democracy. Tens of millions of Iranians -- many of whom badly want a new revolution to replace the Islamic Revolution that ruined all the good things in their homeland -- flocked to some 53,000 polling stations across the country to express support for moderate candidates belonging to the reformist camp led by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. And indeed, the initial results, which were most certainly "fixed" here and there as is the custom in Iran, revealed that Rouhani and his fellow reformist camp leader, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, did well and will likely enjoy a much more comfortable position in parliament this time around.

But we should question the meaning of this celebration of democracy, and we should wonder whether the results of the election -- even if the outcome is a significant accomplishment for Rouhani and the reformist camp -- will really change the way Iran operates in the regional arena and with regard to Israel. Moreover, we should ask if these results mark the beginning of a countdown to the end of the ayatollah's regime. The answer to that question is "no."

After all, there were thousands of candidates demanding real change who were banned from participating in this celebration of democracy in Tehran. Even Islamic Revolution leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's grandson was banned from running in the elections due to claims that he is not committed to the values of the revolution or to the religious principles that underpin the regime. This means that whoever is elected -- even if he is committed to reform and change -- is part and parcel of the Islamic Revolution and is certainly not looking forward to its collapse. At most, he will try to make improvements to it. Aside from that, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which controls the country's security and defense, is dedicated to safeguarding the spirit of the revolution. If the Guards sense that Rouhani is threatening the revolution or their own status, they are likely to try to overthrow him.

Moreover, it is important to understand that in Iran, there is a clear division of labor between the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his men, the Revolutionary Guards, and Rouhani and his men. The reformist camp led by Rouhani is trying to introduce moderate domestic reforms and to improve Iran's image in the world in order to better the economic situation within the country and to increase quality of life for its residents. Rouhani is responsible for spokesmanship and image, and Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards are responsible for actions and for moving forward with Iran's policy in the region -- in the Persian Gulf, Iraq and Syria, and regarding Israel.

And so, last week, while Iran was counting down the hours until the polls opened, Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan visited Moscow and requested of his Russian hosts to acquire weapons in the sum of $8 billion, including, among other things, a supply of fighter jets and advanced tanks, and the Russian S-400 air defense system recently deployed in Syria.

This visit joined another historical visit in November, in which Russian President Vladimir Putin went to Tehran. Putin, who received a king's welcome, made an agreement with the Iranians regarding the supply of advanced missile systems, which had been frozen by the Russians for a long while. This strategic partnership between Russia and Iran finds expression in Syria, where they have been working together for some six months to ensure Syrian President Bashar Assad's continued rule. Ghasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards, met with Putin in Moscow last summer to plan this move.

The takeaway from this is that the Iranians are beginning to feel the deep currents of historic change, but for now, that change will remain underground. And in the near future, it will be the Revolutionary Guards who will continue to set the tone for Iran in our region -- whether in Syria, Lebanon or Gaza.