Ignoring all red lines

The world's silence over the atrocities committed by Syrian President Bashar Assad against his people has emboldened him • With Russia and Iran at his side, it seems all Assad has to do to ensure his victory is to bide his time and avoid massive errors.

Prof. Eyal Zisser - Israel Hayom

Syrian President Bashar Assad and Russian President Vladimir Putin | Photo credit: AP

Tuesday's chemical attack on the town of Khan Sheikhoun in Syria's northern Idlib province, which killed 100 people, most of them women and children, and wounded some 400 others, joins the growing list of atrocities Syrian President Bashar Assad has committed against his people during the civil war that has been raging in the country for the past six years, among them the September 2013 chemical attack in the eastern city of Ghouta, which left 1,400 people dead, and the prolonged siege of Aleppo, which saw the Syrian regime and its allies level the city's rebel-held east, killing thousands and displacing tens of thousands of people.

While it seems Assad's atrocities cause the brutality shown by the Islamic State group, in Syria and elsewhere pale, in comparison, one must remember that the jihadi terrorist group does not have the killing capabilities of the Assad regime.

Over the past six years, every time the world learned about the carnage Assad inflicted on his people it seemed that this was it -- this time he went too far; crossed a red line in a way that would make it impossible for the world to ignore; and that this time, the international community would wake up and put a stop to the bloodshed in Syria.

But each time it turned out that Assad's cold, self-serving calculations have proven true. The world remained silent, effectively allowing the Syrian president to do anything he wants. 

The attack in Ghouta, the siege on Aleppo and the chemical attack in Khan Sheikhoun were not sporadic, disconnected incidents or the result of errors in judgments by commanders on the ground. They were all part of the overall strategy promoted by the Assad regime, which sees the civilian population that supports or harbors rebels as a legitimate target that should be annihilated. As such, the civilian population can be targeted by conventional weapons as well as unconventional weapons, such as chlorine bombs and chemical weapons, some of which Assad has been able to stash away when he allegedly agreed to comply with U.N. Security Council Resolution 2118 from 2013, passed in the wake of the Ghouta attack, and destroy his arsenal of chemical weapons.

Assad has publicly and repeatedly said that it was not enough to fight the armed opposition groups trying to topple him -- the regime should also "take care" of their families, neighbors and anyone who harbors or supports them. This is the only way to comprehend the number of casualties in the Syrian civil war: Some 500,000 dead and another 10 million Syrians, about half of the country's population, who have been displaced and made into refugees. Over 8 million people have fled the country, leaving behind an increasingly depleted population. This actually plays into Assad's hands because, after all, no citizens means no rebels.

Syria on a silver platter

Despite Assad's war against his people, only a year ago the situation was starkly different: The rebels had gained momentum, marking a series of victories over Assad's forces, and it looked like the president's fate was sealed and that the end of his regime was but weeks -- maybe even days -- away.

All that changed in September 2015, when the miracle Assad was undoubtedly praying for happened and Russia and Iran officially stepped in, effectively fighting Assad's enemies for him. Moscow sent dozens of fighter jets and other combat aircraft to bomb the rebels, while Iran sent thousands of Revolutionary Guard Corps soldiers, bolstered by thousands of Hezbollah operatives and volunteers from other Shiite militant groups, to fight on the ground.

This was enough to turn the tables in Assad's favor and give him a distinct advantage if not an outright victory. However, it also made the Syrian president into a pawn on the Russian-Iranian chessboard. His fate lies in the hands of other nations that are, in fact, Syria's new landlords.

The adamant backing Russia offers the Assad regime only underscores the failure of the Obama administration's policy on Syria. By doing nothing about the civil war in Syria when he had the chance, former U.S. President Barack Obama handed Syria to Russian President Vladimir Putin on a silver platter. That decision all but dealt a lethal blow to the opposition's hope of successfully toppling Assad's regime.

Russia's involvement in the Syrian civil war began in September 2015 and it made a dramatic change in the situation, culminating in Assad's forces and their allies seizing control of Aleppo in late December 2016. Since then, Assad has been working to ensure his control of Damascus and the cities of Homs and Hama in central Syria, trying to "cleanse" them of rebels.

Next, Assad is planning to regain control of southern Syria and the Syrian Golan Heights, with the help of Iran and Hezbollah. "Cleansing" Idlib, where the rebels have Turkish support, will undoubtedly come next and after that, Assad will most likely set his sights on freeing eastern Syria from Islamic State's grip. Imposing order in the de facto autonomous Kurdish region in northern Syria will be the last item on his menu.

Unlike Assad, who attaches no importance to the regional and international dimensions and ramifications of his actions, the Russians seek to maximize the potential gains from their presence in Syria. Moscow is prepared to be pragmatic when necessary and it is seemingly willing to cooperate with carving out a solution that will maintain Turkish and even American interests, perhaps to lull friends and foes alike. But for every step toward pragmatic compromise, Russia and Syria take three steps toward using unrestrained force en route to realizing the vision of "greater Syria" -- the way it was before the civil war broke out -- under Assad's leadership and under Putin's influence and control.

Assad's forces have been dealing the rebels blow after blow. The opposition has been fighting back, demonstrating what many have called unbelievable resilience, but it is clear the rebels are on borrowed time: Regional and international support for them is waning, the Syrian public is exhausted and many rebel groups are fighting each other instead of joining forces and fighting the regime.

As things stand, it seems only U.S. President Donald Trump would be able to rain on the Russian-Syrian victory parade, because the new Washington administration is the only new element in the equation. But Trump himself seems to be unsure as to what his policy on Syria should be.

All Assad has to do now is to bide his time and avoid major operational errors such as the attack in Khan Sheikhoun. But even if he doesn't, he could always rely on a little help from his friends, who are willing to rally to his side, as well as on his enemies' helplessness. The civil war in Syria is far from over, but as things stand now Assad -- and even more so Putin -- will emerge the winner.