The element of surprise

They thought Assad could butcher his people unhindered • They thought Trump was in Russia's pocket • But then the American president launched 59 cruise missiles and sent a clear message that everything they thought about him was wrong.

Boaz Bismuth - Israel Hayom
U.S. President Donald Trump - Photo credit: Reuters 
Many who have been following the latest developments in the White House over the last week probably think that U.S. President Donald Trump has gone mad. But they are wrong. It is true that he has set new rules, shaped in his own image, but his conduct toward America's allies indicates that the last thing he wants is confrontation. Certainly not now, when he is deep in the Syrian conflict (and its implications on U.S. relations with Russia) while simultaneously trying to prevent a North Korean crisis (and its implications on U.S. relations with China).

Meanwhile, Trump's detractors continue to take aim as if they were programmed. They celebrate every slip by a member of his staff (like the unfortunate remarks by White House spokesman Sean Spicer this week. But reality has proven that Trump has a knack for defying his detractors and pleasantly surprising everyone.

It has been almost 100 days since Trump took office, and it seems that the media hasn't yet recovered from his election victory. Over the last three months, Trump has managed to surprise just about everyone, proving that he knows how to govern the same way he knows how to campaign -- in his own unique way, without consulting any manual. That is why it is very difficult to anticipate his next move. That's who he is, and it is time for his critics to understand that.

Those who thought that Trump was in the Russians' pocket got a salvo of American cruise missiles in the heart of Syria last week in a move that embarrassed the Russians but cut their Middle East ambitions down to size. Those who thought that Trump was going to let his strategic adviser Steve Bannon run the White House learned that it was actually Trump's Jewish and relatively liberal son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who had his ear. Anyone who thought that Trump would undo Obamacare without a second thought realized that the new president was actually willing to keep in place certain elements of the health care reform that he so vehemently criticized during his campaign. In fact, Trump is determined to prove at every possible junction that he will not hesitate to do what it takes, both domestically and abroad, when leadership and strategic decisions are in order and when America is put to the test, like it is now.

In fact, the White House has gone out of its way to communicate a message that there is no such thing as a "Trump doctrine." Unlike previous presidents, Trump has no intention of making adjustments to fit some ideological mold. As far as Trump is concerned, doing that only invites trouble.

Everyone can probably recall how, in 2013, Trump's predecessor President Barack Obama hoped to change the reality in the Middle East by insisting on diplomatic engagement involving carrots and sticks, even when the carrots were tiny and no one felt at all threatened by the sticks. But at least Obama, unlike the current president, knew exactly what he was doing, or so the commentators would have us believe.

Obama thought that withdrawing the U.S. from the Middle East and leaving a vacuum in our region would somehow lead to political stability because the locals would be forced to take their fates into their own hands rather than relying on the U.S. to do it for them (he was also influenced by the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, which he opposed). Therefore, at every possible opportunity, including in August 2013 when Syrian President Bashar Assad launched chemical weapons on civilians, Obama opted to sit idly by so that, heaven forbid, the U.S. wouldn't get sucked back into the Middle East. Only he neglected to consider that the Russians would swoop in and fill every bit of vacuum he left behind. And indeed, that is what they did in September 2015 in what became the biggest Russian intervention in the Middle East since the Cold War.

So if Obama's doctrine was essentially to not do too much and "allow diplomacy to work" then you can say that Trump's doctrine is to take fast, decisive action and surprise as many as possible.

To be honest, it seems that Trump's first three months in office served to drive home the formulation that appeared in the Atlantic during the campaign: "The press takes him literally, but not seriously; his supporters take him seriously, but not literally." The strike in Syria once again demonstrated this point clearly. It was enough to see the learned commentators forecasting Trump's response to Assad's chemical attack in Idlib Province only to read how wrong they were in the weekend papers. Unpleasant indeed, but all those commentators scrutinizing Trump's every move could use a little humility.

Here's another example: One expert wrote about the negative response that the American strike was likely to elicit in the Arab world. But unfortunately for the experts, the Arab world did just the opposite. "Abu Ivanka," (Ivanka's father) as the Arab press dubbed Trump, did not let the Arab world down when he took action on behalf of the "beautiful Syrian babies." To find any condemnation of Trump's decision you'd have to go as far as Iran, where President Hassan Rouhani (Obama's buddy) accused America of assisting terrorism. Because Assad, Iran's benefactor, is a leading candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize, right?

"We have learned that Trump is not so isolationist as many Europeans feared he would be -- he appears to care about victims of a gas attack in Syria," said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform in London, to The New York Times, which described Trump's doctrine as the "don't follow doctrine."

The New York Times asserted that on the one hand, Trump's conduct is influenced greatly by the circumstances, but on the other hand, his refusal to "get roped in by doctrine" allows him to engage on a deeper level with other countries, easing the concerns of America's allies.

Ironically, it is the man whose campaign slogan was "America first" who is now engaging with allies and working toward a shared interest of defending Western values, while the 44th president, who was considered a great liberal, barricaded himself within his own conceptions for eight years, whereby America was merely an onlooker in whatever was happening in the world -- even when it was obvious that American intervention could really have changed the course of the events. Syria, and even Iraq, are good examples of that.

"Our decisions will be guided by our values and our goals -- and we will reject the path of inflexible ideology that too often leads to unintended consequences," Trump said when announcing the missile strike in Syria. It was without a doubt one of his better speeches. He hardly mentioned the events in Syria, or in the Middle East. It was a speech that sought to permanently end American ambivalence in the world. The U.S. would no longer kowtow to the U.N. Security Council or the international community or even Congress. The rules of the game have changed. Trump's America is also America of the world.

Trump may not have been delighted to adopt the role of global policeman -- and it was precisely for that reason that he insisted several months ago that the U.S. should not become involved in Middle East conflicts -- but he also knows very well that failing to decide is a decision. Refraining from intervening, the way Obama did after Assad's chemical attack in 2013 (his 14th such attack according to French intelligence sources), will guarantee a deterioration and will ultimately force the U.S. to direct even more attention at the region.

Refraining from action in one arena on the global stage can send the wrong message to another arena. Ever since Obama's failure to decide in August 2013, North Korea has stepped up its ballistic missile and nuclear testing, Islamic State has stepped up its terrorist attacks in Europe and the Syrian situation has only deteriorated. And Iran is a story in and of itself. Trump realized that without a military stick there can be no diplomatic carrot. Obama had hoped that the carrots would ultimately replace the missiles -- last week, Trump proved that Obama was wrong, certainly in the short run.

Speaking of Iran, it was quite symbolic that former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced his plan to run for re-election this week. So what has changed in Iran since Obama and the "historic" nuclear agreement? It's sad to admit it, but not much.

Much has been said about Trump's instinctive, improvisational style. The American media has attributed another motive to many of the 45th president's decisions: to do the opposite of Obama. Politico Magazine even ran a piece titled "President Not-Obama" last week, explaining that in many cases, Trump consciously takes the path that Obama would reject.

The day after Trump decided to launch missiles on a Syrian airbase, a mere 63 hours after the Syrian regime used chemical weapons on the Syrian people, Politico asked in the same article: "Was this the week Donald Trump found a foreign policy? Or a foreign policy found him?"

"At a time when so much remains uncertain about Trump's approach to the world ... his I'm-not-Obama stance may well be the most consistent theme of Trump's foreign policy so far," Politico argued, "from the near-impossible task of trying again to broker peace between Israel and the Palestinians after Obama-brokered talks went nowhere, to reaching out to Russian President Vladimir Putin at a time when he and Obama were barely on speaking terms."

The most consistent thing about Trump at this point is his effort to fix, on his own terms, the failures that Obama left behind. It is as though he purchased real estate from someone who went bankrupt and is now trying to build the most impressive building he can on top of it to obscure what was there before. That is precisely what he is doing with Obama's foreign policy. He hopes to do the same domestically as well.

According to The New York Times, "Mr. Trump's first instinct after the Syrian chemical attack was to blame Mr. Obama for not enforcing his red line. ... Even as he announced the missile strike on Thursday night, Mr. Trump asserted that his predecessor's handling of Syria had 'failed very dramatically.'" But again, anyone who thinks that the only sentiment guiding Trump is "not Obama" isn't getting it. That's taking things too literally. Obama feared that decisive American action in the Middle East would be interpreted as American aggression or excessive intervention and harm the U.S.'s image, but Trump measures America on an entirely different scale. Trump understands that an American action reverberates through the entire world. He knows that a strike in Syria is felt in Iran and in North Korea too.

Contrary to what people may say about him, Trump thinks strategically. The strike in Syria was designed to send a strategic message. First and foremost it proved that he was capable of being a "madman" even in the face of another superpower (Russia), and secondly, it sent the message of "don't test me." Trump understands that his country can't shirk the role of the world's policeman. Unlike Obama, who thought that he could just disappear from the scene or "lead from behind."

Upon completing almost 100 days in office, the new sheriff in Washington has made it clear to the world that, unlike the Nobel Peace Prize laureate who preceded him, he is not afraid to fight to protect babies from dying in gas attacks.

The Atlantic, a magazine that went out of its way to warn Americans against voting for Trump before the election, ran a piece in its latest issue that Trump could never have dreamed of during his campaign, calling his foreign policy "brilliant." The long article argues that "the United States periodically debates whether to do more or less abroad. Trump won by promising both."